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The polls are open for parliamentary elections in the Netherlands, with recent surveys indicating that the far-right leader Geert Wilders and his PVV party may repeat their win the most seats, although analysts believe PVV is unlikely of joining the future coalition.

Polling Trends and Election Dynamics

The PVV, which in the last election achieved a shock top result and formed a four-party right-leaning government that lasted barely a year, is now slightly leading in the polls and is forecast to secure between 24 and 28 seats in the 150-seat house of representatives.

However, PVV's support has declined since 2023, when it secured 37 seats. All major parties have stated they will not forming a government with Wilders, who triggered the fall of the previous government in June amid a dispute concerning his controversial immigration proposals.

Major Parties and Projections

At the end of a campaign focused on topics such as migration, healthcare costs, and the nation's acute housing crisis, the centre-left GL/PvdA coalition, led by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is running a close second, expected to gain between 22 and 26 seats.

Also performing well is the centrist D66, projected to increase its seat count by almost five times to 21 to 25 seats, while the right-leaning Christian Democrats (CDA) is anticipated to significantly increase its seat tally to between 18 and 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – which included the PVV, liberal-conservative VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all forecast to lose seats, with some facing heavy losses.

Electoral System and Political Division

Under the Netherlands' electoral system, securing just 0.67% of the national vote earns a party one MP. Of the 27 parties participating in the vote – which include parties for the over-50s, for youth, animal rights parties, basic income advocates, and for sport – as many as 16 may gain entry to parliament.

This significant fragmentation means that no one party is ever likely to win a majority, and Holland has been ruled by coalitions – typically composed of several groups in the last few administrations – for more than a century.

Government Formation

The PVV leader claimed that "the democratic process would end" in the country if the his party becomes the biggest group yet is shut out of power. However, opponents and experts argue that first place does not guarantee a role in the coalition and that any coalition with a parliamentary majority is democratically valid.

Although the election result is uncertain and government negotiations could take months, political observers indicate that following the most extreme government in recent memory, the future government is likely to be a inclusive coalition led by either the centre-left or centrist right.

Voting Process

Voting locations, including those in the miniature city Madurodam in the capital and the Anne Frank museum in the capital city, began operations at 7.30am (6.30am GMT) and will close at 9:00 PM. A usually accurate post-voting survey is anticipated shortly after closing time.

After the vote, an official negotiator will test potential governing alliances that could command a majority in the legislature. Prospective coalition members will then negotiate an agreement for the coming term and must face a vote of confidence in the house before taking office.