Netherlands Elections: Major Parties and Central Topics in Early Election
Citizens in the Netherlands are preparing to potentially replace the most conservative administration in recent memory with a more moderate and commonsense alliance during early general elections scheduled for 29 October.
What's Happening and Why It Matters
Early legislative elections were triggered after the collapse of the previous administration in the summer, when far-right politician Geert Wilders pulled his PVV from an already unstable and largely ineffective governing alliance.
The PVV had achieved a surprising first place in the 2023 election, and after prolonged talks formed a fragile four-party rightwing coalition with the BBB party, centrist New Social Contract and liberal-conservative VVD.
However, Wilders' government allies considered him too toxic for the prime minister position, which ultimately went to a ex-security head. Wilders, an immigration-skeptic polemicist who has required security detail for twenty years, began sniping from outside government.
He ultimately triggered the coalition breakup on 3 June after his partners refused to implement a far-reaching comprehensive immigration restriction proposal that included using military forces to patrol borders, rejecting all asylum seekers, closing most asylum centers and sending home all Syria nationals.
While backing of the PVV has declined, polls indicate the rightwing, Islam-critical party is again likely to win the most seats in parliament. However, main Dutch political parties have all ruled out entering a formal coalition with Wilders.
No fewer than sixteen political groups are forecast to enter parliament, but no single party is projected to secure above approximately 20% of the vote. As usual, the next Dutch government, generally an influential player on the European and global scene, will emerge only after coalition negotiations that could last months.
How the System Works and Party Environment
The parliament contains 150 representatives in the Netherlands legislature, meaning a government needs 76 seats to form a majority. No individual group typically achieves this, and the Netherlands has been governed by multi-party governments for over 100 years.
Parliament is elected quadrennially – sooner when governments collapse – through party-list system, based on an approved list of candidates in a country-wide district: any party that secures 0.67% of the vote is assured of a seat.
As in many European nations, Netherlands political life have been characterized in modern times by a significant drop in support for the traditional governing groups from the moderate right and left, whose electoral support has shrunk from over four-fifths in the eighties to barely two-fifths now.
In the Netherlands, this trend has been paralleled by a remarkable multiplication of smaller parties: 27 are running this time, including a senior citizens' party, a party for youth, a animal rights party, a party for universal basic income, and a party for sport.
Major Parties and Main Issues
In the lead is Wilders' PVV, projected to drop as many as eight of the 37 seats it secured last election. It proposes, among other measures, a complete freeze on refugee admissions, Ukrainian men to be returned, the military to combat "urban violence", and an end to "progressive education" in schools.
Two parties, of the moderate right and left, are closely competing after the PVV. The Christian Democrats (CDA) dominated Dutch politics from the end of the seventies to the early 90s, and once more in the early 2000s, but slumped to only five mandates in the last election.
However, under Henri Bontenbal, its youthful rising star, who joined political life only four years ago, the party has recovered strongly with a electoral platform emphasizing the severe Netherlands housing shortage and a commitment of "normal, civilised politics". It is on course for up to twenty-six mandates.
GreenLeft/Labour (GL/PvdA), an electoral alliance between the environmentalist party and the 80-year-old Dutch Labour party that is expected to become a full-blown merger, is projected to secure comparable seats, according to survey data.
Headed by the experienced former European commissioner its leader, it has made constructing additional housing its biggest priority, and has controversially included a immigration limit of between forty to sixty thousand people a year in its manifesto.
Three additional groups appear set to be significant forces in the new parliament.
The liberal-progressive D66 is projected to gain seats – securing as many as seventeen, from its present nine – under its straight-talking young leader, with a platform centred on housing (it proposes to build 10 new cities) and an "personal minimum income" for recipients.
The liberal-conservative VVD, the party of the ex-premier (now Nato chief), is predicted to decline to no more than sixteen mandates from its present twenty-four, with its head, accused of moving the group excessively rightward, blamed for its decline. It is proposing corporate tax reductions and reduced social benefits.
The populist, strictly rightwing JA21 is a spin-off from a different rightwing formation – the once popular, now controversy-plagued FvD – and appears to be profiting from an exodus of supporters from the three major rightwing parties. It could win up to 14 seats.
Besides the two main rightwing parties, both other partners in the ill-fated outgoing coalition, the BBB and NSC, are expected to decline, with the centrist party not even guaranteed representation in parliament.
The top issues currently have been migration policy, with multiple – sometimes violent – protests against planned emergency reception centres for refugee applicants, the cost of living, and the perennial Dutch problem of housing (the country is short of four hundred thousand residences).
Potential New Government
Considering the highly fragmented state of Dutch politics, what alliances are actually possible is equally significant as who wins the election (or in this case, probably runner-up, since no significant group will govern with Wilders, who insists he wants to head a minority administration).
After the election, MPs first designate an informateur, who seeks out possible alliances. Once a workable alliance has been found, a formateur, typically the leader of the biggest prospective member, begins discussing the formal coalition agreement. This often requires months.
Various combinations look possible, typically including a combination of political groups from moderate left and moderate right. The most probable, according to coalition experts, include CDA and GL/PvdA, plus Democrats 66 and several smaller parties possibly incorporating the conservative party.